2026 年至少三家替 AI 買算力、蓋資料中心或做 AI 伺服器的公司,在自由現金流或營運現金流為負的時候,賣了強制轉換特別股,而且同一次募資都搭配普通股。Oracle 2 月賣 50 億美元、年股息 6.50%,另設上限 200 億美元的 ATM。Supermicro 6 月賣 7,500 萬股存託股、年股息 7.00%,同一週另賣 4,545 萬股普通股,並設 12.5 億美元的 ATM。Meta 10 月賣 2.5 億股存託股、年股息 6.50%,同時簽了 4,000 萬股普通股的遠期出售合約。Alphabet 6 月也發了(年股息 6.25%),但簽約前公布的自由現金流還是正的,只當補充。形式不固定:Amazon 到目前只靠舉債;Oracle 11 月第二次募資只賣普通股加公司債,賣價比 2 月低 27.5%;CoreWeave 用的是私募普通股;這四家都還沒發第二筆。缺口還在:Meta 約 1,214 億美元的承諾在 2027 年到期,Oracle 2,880 億美元還沒起租的租約要到 2029 會計年度陸續起租,Amazon、CoreWeave、Applied Digital 的現金流也是負的。本報推論並預期:2026-11-13 到 2027-12-31 之間,至少再有一筆 10 億美元以上的強制轉換特別股公開發行,出自這類公司(已經發過的公司再發也算,公用事業與金融業不算),約六成五;這一筆在同一次募資也會搭配普通股(現賣、ATM 或遠期),約八成,但樣本只有三筆。財務長可以把它當成已有公開定價的選項,但稀釋要連同一次的普通股和下一次再募一起算。投資長遇到自由現金流轉負、又有大額合約承諾的公司,要把賣股權算進可能的下一步,不要只算舉債。
這不是預測，所以沒有排定哪一天對答案。
什麼會推翻它
各條行尾若有日期，那是相反的證據要在那天前出現才算數的期限，不是對答案的日子。
美國證管會的 424B 說明書補充與 8-K:2026-11-13 到 2027-12-31 之間定價的強制轉換特別股(含存託股形式)公開發行。發行人要是買算力、蓋或租資料中心、或製造 AI 伺服器的公司(發行文件、同次 8-K 或發行前最近一季財報把資本支出或資金用途寫到 AI 或資料中心);面額 10 億美元以上,不含超額配售;公用事業與金融業不算;已經發過的公司再發也算 — 0 筆 — 推翻「至少再有一筆」的預期 — 2027-12-31
符合上一條的第一筆發行:發行人在定價日前後各 7 天內,有沒有公告賣普通股(承銷現賣、ATM 或遠期出售合約) — 沒有 — 推翻「同一次募資搭配普通股」;上一條為 0 筆時這一條作廢,不算對錯 — 2027-12-31
寫下判斷時的出處
Oracle Corporation Form 424B5 final prospectus supplement — 100,000,000 Depositary Shares each representing a 1/2,000th interest in a share of 6.50% Series D Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, dated 2026-02-02, filed 2026-02-04 (accession 0001193125-26-037818) · Oracle Corporation(SEC EDGAR primary)
「100,000,000 Depositary Shares Each Representing a 1/2,000th Interest in a Share of 6.50% Series D Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock」
Oracle Corporation Form 424B5 prospectus supplement — Up to $20,000,000,000 of Common Stock (at-the-market equity distribution agreement), dated and filed 2026-02-02 (accession 0001193125-26-032756) · Oracle Corporation(SEC EDGAR primary)
「under which we may offer and sell from time to time our common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $20,000,000,000.」
Super Micro Computer Form 8-K (Item 1.01/3.03) — 7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred / Depositary Shares offering (event 2026-06-10, closed 2026-06-15) · SEC EDGAR (Super Micro Computer Inc, accession 0001193125-26-270430)
「7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, liquidation preference $1,000 per share」
Super Micro Computer Form 8-K (Item 1.01) — Common Stock offering, $1.25B ATM & Credit Agreement Amendment No. 2 (event 2026-06-10/11, filed 2026-06-12) · SEC EDGAR (Super Micro Computer Inc, accession 0001193125-26-269703)
「45,454,545 shares of Common Stock」
Meta Platforms, Inc. Form 8-K (2026-10-29, event 2026-10-26) — Item 1.01/3.03 mandatory convertible preferred + common-stock forward sale · Meta Platforms, Inc.(SEC EDGAR primary)
「each representing a 1/20th interest in a share of 6.50% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, liquidation preference $1,000.00 per share」
「initially relating to an aggregate of 40,000,000 shares of the Company’s Class A common stock」
Super Micro Form 8-K — Item 2.02 + Ex-99.1 (2026-05-05): Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended 2026-03-31) financial results · SEC EDGAR (Super Micro Computer Inc, accession 0001375365-26-000013)
「Cash flow used in operations for Q3'26 of $6.6 billion and capital expenditures and investments of $97 million.」
Meta Platforms, Inc. Form 8-K dated 2026-10-19 (filed 2026-10-21, accession 0001628280-26-066700) — Items 1.01 / 2.02 / 8.01；含 Q3 2026 earnings press release (Ex-99.1) 與 Founder Alignment Agreement / Class C recapitalization · SEC EDGAR (Meta Platforms, Inc., CIK 0001326801)
「Cash flow from operating activities was $32.79 billion, and free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion.」
Oracle Corporation Form 8-K (2026-09-10) — Item 2.02 Q1 FY2027 results, incl. Exhibit 99.1 press release · Oracle Corporation(SEC EDGAR primary)
「Free Cash Flow $ (362 ) $ (9,967 ) $ (11,484 ) $ (1,873 ) $ (23,686 ) $ (5,396 )」
「Free cash flow was negative $5 billion for Q1 as Oracle continued to execute on investments to support the growth of its Cloud Infrastructure business.」
Oracle Corporation Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-08-31 (Q1 FY2027), filed 2026-09-11 · Oracle Corporation(SEC EDGAR primary)
「As of August 31, 2026 , we had $ 288 billion of additional lease commitments, substantially all related to data center arrangements, that are generally expected to commence between the second quarter of fiscal 2027」
Meta Platforms, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30 (filed 2026-10-22, accession 0001628280-26-066773) · SEC EDGAR (Meta Platforms, Inc., CIK 0001326801)
「As of September 30, 2026, we had $454.52 billion of non-cancelable contractual commitments」
「with approximately $45.85 billion and $121.41 billion due in 2026 and 2027, respectively.」
Amazon.com, Inc. Form 8-K (2026-10-29) — Item 2.02 Q3 2026 results (Exhibit 99.1 press release) · Amazon.com, Inc.(SEC EDGAR primary)
「Free cash flow decreased to an outflow of $42.4 billion for the trailing twelve months, driven primarily by a year-over-year increase of $94.8 billion in purchases of property and equipment, net of proceeds from sales and incentives.」
CoreWeave, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 (filed 2026-11-12; accession 0001769628-26-000465) · CoreWeave, Inc.(SEC EDGAR primary)
「Purchases of property and equipment, including capitalized internal-use software $ ( 23,558 )」
「Proceeds from issuance of debt, net $ 27,048」
Applied Digital Corporation Form 10-Q for the quarter ended August 31, 2026 (Q1 FY2027; filed 2026-10-07; accession 0001144879-26-000059) · Applied Digital Corporation(SEC EDGAR primary)
「CASH FLOW PROVIDED BY (USED IN) OPERATING ACTIVITIES 63,921 ( 81,531 ) CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES Purchases of property and equipment and other assets ( 2,074,698 ) ( 249,914 )」
Oracle Corporation Form 424B5 定價版說明書補充(補充書日期 2026-11-02,2026-11-04 申報)— 86,206,897 股普通股,每股 $116.00 · Oracle Corporation(SEC EDGAR primary)
「Per Share Total Price to Public $ 116.0000 $ 10,000,000,052」
Oracle Corporation Form 424B2 初步說明書補充(2026-11-02)— $10,000,000,000 六檔公司債(2029 浮動、2029/2031/2033/2037/2046 固定) · Oracle Corporation(SEC EDGAR primary)
「Concurrently with this offering and pursuant to a separate prospectus supplement, we are offering $10,000,000,000 of our common stock」