Amazon 持有的 Anthropic 可轉債,不計上限可轉成約 18.4 億股 Anthropic N 類普通股,但受 Amazon 的 12% 持股上限限制;這條上限 Amazon 可以自行選擇放棄。Amazon 的季報(季末 2026-09-30)與 Anthropic 的招股書(2026-11-10 修正案)都寫:Anthropic 上市時,這批債只在上限內轉成股票,沒轉的繼續可轉,仍受上限限制;Anthropic 的招股書另寫 Amazon 這次選擇不放棄上限。過去的轉換也都只轉了一部分:Amazon 列出 2025 年第一季、2025 年第三季與 2026 年第一季三次,每次轉的都是「一部分」;Anthropic 寫明沒轉的部分是因為會超過上限才改發成新票據,到 2026-09-30 還在外面的票據全是這一種。本報推論:一條由持有人自行決定是否放棄的上限,如果每一次轉換都照樣適用,而且不放棄也不會馬上失去轉換權,持有人就會繼續守著它。前例是上面三次轉換,加上兩家申報都寫上市這一次也照上限辦。所以本報預期,到 2027-09-30,Amazon 不會放棄這條上限,這批債以股數計仍有一半以上沒有轉成股票;對答案日 2027-11-15,看兩家 2027 年第三季的季報。這句預期以 Anthropic 在 2027-03-31 前完成上市為前提。算 Anthropic 股數的機構投資人、評估 Amazon 對 Anthropic 曝險的人,要把這約 18.4 億股當成掛在上限後面、分批進來的股數,不是上市日就在的流通股。
這不是預測，所以沒有排定哪一天對答案。
什麼會推翻它
各條行尾若有日期，那是相反的證據要在那天前出現才算數的期限，不是對答案的日子。
Amazon 或 Anthropic 的法定申報(10-Q、10-K、8-K、招股書或其修正)揭露 Amazon 已放棄或調高這批可轉債的 12% 持股上限 — 揭露一次即算 — 出現即推翻「到 2027-09-30 Amazon 不會放棄上限」 — 2027-11-15
Anthropic 2027 年第三季季報(季末 2027-09-30)所列發給 Amazon、尚未轉換的票據不計上限可轉成的 N 類普通股股數;Anthropic 沒揭露時，改用 Amazon 同季季報寫的不計上限可轉股數(若以特別股表示，每股折 10 股普通股) — 低於 9.2 億股(2026-09-30 的 1,840,444,962 股的一半) — 低於門檻即推翻「以股數計仍有一半以上沒有轉成股票」 — 2027-11-15
Anthropic 2027 年第三季季報(季末 2027-09-30)所列發給 Amazon 的不計息 rollover note 流通本金 — 低於 31.0 億美元(2026-09-30 流通本金 62.03 億美元的一半) — 低於門檻即削弱「一半以上沒有轉成股票」 — 2027-11-15
寫下判斷時的出處
Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30, filed 2026-10-30) · Amazon.com, Inc.(SEC EDGAR primary)
「The convertible notes are subject to our 12 % ownership cap, which may be waived at our election.」
「In the event Anthropic consummates an IPO or other liquidity event, then-outstanding notes would be converted to unregistered N-class nonvoting common stock, subject to our ownership cap, and nonvoting preferred stock would be converted to nonvoting common stock.」
「Any then-outstanding notes that are not converted to nonvoting common stock would continue to be convertible to nonvoting common stock, subject to our ownership cap.」
「Without giving effect to the ownership cap, the convertible notes we held at September 30, 2026 would convert to approximately 184 million shares of nonvoting preferred stock.」
「Each share of nonvoting preferred stock held by us is convertible into ten shares of nonvoting common stock.」
「In Q1 2025 and Q1 2026, a portion of the then-outstanding notes was converted to nonvoting preferred stock.」
「In Q3 2025, an additional portion of our notes was converted to nonvoting preferred stock.」
Anthropic, PBC Form S-1/A(Amendment No. 2)主註冊聲明/招股書(SEC EDGAR,CIK 0002130357,accession 0001628280-26-072484,2026-11-10 申報) · Anthropic, PBC(SEC EDGAR primary)
「Under the terms of the applicable notes, no portion of a note converts to the extent that, immediately following the conversion, Amazon would hold more than 12% of our capitalization, calculated for this purpose to include all of our outstanding capital」
「In connection with the completion of this offering, the Amazon Notes will convert into Class N common stock up to an ownership cap as set forth in the Amazon Notes, which Amazon has elected not to waive in connection with this offering.」
「Amazon may waive this limitation in its sole discretion but has elected not to do so in connection with this offering.」
「The principal amount of the notes that cannot convert without exceeding the applicable ownership cap will be re-issued as a non-interest-bearing “rollover note” with substantially identical terms (other than any reduction in principal as a result of any partial conversion up to Amazon’s ownership cap).」
「Principal Amount Outstanding (in millions) Conversion Price Per Share (1) Class N Shares Issuable on Conversion (2)」
「Amazon Amazon 2023 NPA (3) $ 2,186 $ 2.0928 1,044,716,970 Amazon Amazon 2024 NPA (4) 4,017 $ 5.0478 795,727,992 Total $ 6,203 1,840,444,962」
「Prior to this offering, the portion of each note that could not convert without exceeding this ownership cap was reissued as a rollover note in lieu of the shares of our non-voting redeemable convertible preferred stock that would otherwise have been issued to Amazon.」
「The following table summarizes the notes outstanding under our NPAs as of September 30, 2026, which consist entirely of non-interest-bearing rollover notes issued to Amazon under the Amazon 2023 NPA and the Amazon 2024 NPA, neither of which provides for the issuance of additional notes.」
「Pursuant to the terms of the Amazon Notes, to the extent that the full amount of such notes cannot convert into shares of our Class N common stock in connection with this offering as a result of the ownership cap applicable to the Amazon Notes, which Amazon has elected not to waive in connection with this offering, the remaining balance of such notes will automatically convert, subject to Amazon’s ownership cap, into shares of our Class N common stock at the applicable conversion price at the end of each fiscal quarter following this offering or, if such remaining balance of such notes does not convert before the applicable maturity date because of the applicable ownership cap, such balance will be repaid in cash at such maturity date.」
「Following this offering and the concurrent private placement, our outstanding convertible promissory notes will represent in the aggregate approximately 25.5% of our Class N common stock and 12.6% of our total outstanding common stock (assuming full conversion without giving effect to the holder’s ownership cap).」