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NVIDIA's 5-year CDS spread stays at… — resolves 2026-12-31
NVIDIA's 5-year CDS spread stays at… — resolves 2026-12-31
The call
NVIDIA's 5-year CDS spread stays at an elevated, market-warning level of at least 80bp through 2026-12-31, rather than falling back to the roughly 40bp range that prevailed before circular-financing concerns surfaced.
Sources
Stratechery (Ben Thompson);引 Doug O'Laughlin(Fabricated Knowledge)、Byrne Hobart、Gross/Friedman
「The stable oligopoly is cracking...we are starting…」
SemiAnalysis (Dylan Patel)
「Nvidia provides a take-or-pay commitment to Neoclo…」
The receipt
On 2026-12-31, or the nearest trading day, read the published weekly CDS quote: 80bp or wider is a hit; under 80bp, including a return to about 40bp, is a miss.
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
2026-12-31
Outcome
Not due yet — no public outcome to report.
What we learned
Not resolved yet — here is the condition we pre-committed to that would overturn this call (check it yourself, you don't have to wait):
A sustained decline that holds below 80bp before the due date flips the call to a miss. Fresh highs well above 80bp strengthen the direction but do not change the test.
