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Epoch AI's next published… — resolves 2026-10-31
Epoch AI's next published… — resolves 2026-10-31
The call
Epoch AI's next published measurement of the US-China frontier capability gap lands between 4 and 14 months, neither narrowing inside 4 months nor widening past 14.
Sources
SemiAnalysis
「DeepSeek v4... co-designed in part for Huawei Asce…」
SemiAnalysis
「CXMT... likely to become the largest semiconductor…」
SemiAnalysis
「The Big-3 hold over 85% combined market share (Ans…」
CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
「the controls have clearly accelerated Beijing's lo…」
Bloomberg
「China is preparing to spend around 2 trillion yuan…」
The receipt
Compare Epoch AI's next updated reading against both bounds: inside the 4-14 month range is a hit; outside either bound is a miss; if Epoch publishes no new reading by the due date, the call is unresolvable.
Resolves
Oct 31, 2026
2026-10-31
Outcome
Not due yet — no public outcome to report.
What we learned
Not resolved yet — here is the condition we pre-committed to that would overturn this call (check it yourself, you don't have to wait):
A reading under 4 months would support the view that export controls are failing; over 14 months, that they are working. Either shifts the wider interpretation rather than reversing this specific test.
