Kimi K3's blended effective price on… — resolves 2026-10-15

Kimi K3's blended effective price on Moonshot's official pricing page falls below $0.5/M tokens before 2026-10-15.

Moonshot AI (via HuggingFace)
「If the Licensee or any of its affiliates operates …」

ChinAI Newsletter (Jeff Ding, GWU)
「Using the blended rate (essentially, a typical usa…」

X / @natolambert (Nathan Lambert, Ai2/Interconnects)
「Kimi K3 license. It's inspired by MIT but distinct…」

llm-stats.com + DevTk.AI + pricepertoken.com + Yotta Labs(獨立定價聚合站,與 Moonshot/ChinAI/Lambert 均無關聯)
「GLM-5.2 (via DeepInfra): Input $0.95/1M tokens, Ou…」

Moonshot AI(官方定價頁)
「¥2.00 / MTok」

DeepSeek(官方定價頁)
「1M INPUT TOKENS (CACHE MISS) $0.435」

On 2026-10-15, read Moonshot's official pricing page and compute the blended effective price at the standard cache/input/output mix: below $0.5 is a hit; $0.5 or above is a miss.

Oct 15, 2026

2026-10-15

Not due yet — no public outcome to report.

Not resolved yet — here is the condition we pre-committed to that would overturn this call (check it yourself, you don't have to wait):

A cut into the DeepSeek band (blended below $0.5) before the due date would retire the monetization reading; holding the current price leaves the rationing-and-scarcity reading intact.