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Through 2027-07-14, GitHub Copilot,… — resolves 2027-07-14

Pending

Through 2027-07-14, GitHub Copilot,… — resolves 2027-07-14

Trend call · Asserted on Jul 31, 2026

The call

Through 2027-07-14, GitHub Copilot, or one of the top two copilot-style coding assistants by market share, shows no year-over-year decline in officially disclosed annualized revenue/ARR or paid users.

Sources

arXiv
「agents can assist developers in ways that surpass …」

Stratechery(Ben Thompson;訪 Anysphere/Cursor CEO)
「reaching $100 million in annual recurring revenue …」

The receipt

Read the most recent official disclosure of ARR or paid users, from Microsoft earnings or a GitHub announcement, and compare it year-over-year against the prior-year figure.

Resolves

Jul 14, 2027

Outcome

Not due yet — no public outcome to report.

What we learned

Not resolved yet — here is the condition we pre-committed to that would overturn this call (check it yourself, you don't have to wait):

A negative year-over-year disclosure flips the growth call for copilot-style products.

Through 2027-07-14, GitHub Copilot,… — resolves 2027-07-14