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In Menlo Ventures' next enterprise… — resolves 2026-09-30
In Menlo Ventures' next enterprise… — resolves 2026-09-30
The call
In Menlo Ventures' next enterprise LLM adoption report, expected around 2026-09-30, Anthropic's enterprise share falls at least 5 percentage points from the 40% baseline cited here (up from 32%, with the top three at 88% combined as of 2026-07), meaning 35% or lower.
Sources
BG2 Pod / Altimeter(guest host)訪 Ali Ghodsi(Databricks CEO)+ Arvind Jain(Glean CEO)
「the the LLMs is a commodity as Arvind said. You ca…」
SemiAnalysis
「Anthropic's ARR has exploded from $9B to over $44B…」
SemiAnalysis
「AWS margins inflected this past quarter driven pri…」
AI Snake Oil / Normal Technology (Arvind Narayanan & Akash Kapur)
「If we assume a 5% net margin — much higher than ai…」
arXiv (Satoshi Matsuoka)
「a depreciation conveyor delivers newly amortized f…」
The receipt
Read the Anthropic and top-three share figures in the latest edition of Menlo Ventures' official enterprise AI adoption report, expected around 2026-09.
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026
2026-09-30
Outcome
Not due yet — no public outcome to report.
What we learned
Not resolved yet — here is the condition we pre-committed to that would overturn this call (check it yourself, you don't have to wait):
A share still at or above 35% means the concentration trend continues.
