In the next enterprise adoption report, Anthropic's share will drop 5 points or more — resolves 2026-09-30

The debate: venture firm Menlo Ventures surveys every six months which big AI models companies actually use, one of the few public, checkable market-share numbers.

Why it matters: the direction of market share is the most direct evidence in the argument over whether big AI models will become cheap, swappable commodities.

Who is on each side: our previous call bet that share would become more concentrated, and this one is the counter-indicator we set up specifically to test ourselves.

Our call: this is a deliberately fixed counter-indicator. If Anthropic's enterprise share falls from 40% to 35% or lower, a drop of 5 percentage points or more, the reading that share keeps concentrating should be retired.

We put the odds of this happening at only 40%; we wrote it down to give ourselves a chance to be proven wrong, not because we expect it to happen.

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Read the Anthropic and top-three share figures in the latest edition of Menlo Ventures' official enterprise AI adoption report, expected around 2026-09.

Correction to the settlement rule

Corrected on 2026-10-10: the miss condition originally read "still at or above 35%", which overlapped with "35% or lower is a hit" at exactly 35%. Following the call's own wording — a drop of 5 points or more, i.e. 35% or lower — exactly 35% counts as a hit and only above 35% is a miss; on 2026-10-13 the "what would overturn it" line was rewritten to the same boundary. Both corrections were made before Menlo had published a new edition, so no result had been seen. The original wording stays in our ledger and in the public mirror's version history.

Can't be determined (settled 2026-10-30)

Closed 2026-10-30 as unresolvable: after 2026-07-31 Menlo Ventures published only a consumer-AI report, and its newest enterprise adoption report is still the one dated 2025-12-09 (Anthropic at 40% is this call's baseline). There was no notice of discontinuation or a change of method, so the call cannot be voided.