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GPUs and ASICs diverge rather than… — resolves 2027-01-31
GPUs and ASICs diverge rather than… — resolves 2027-01-31
The call
GPUs and ASICs diverge rather than displace each other: training stays on GPUs, while hyperscalers move their own inference to ASICs.
Sources
Jouppi et al. — Google — arXiv (ISCA 2017)
「This paper evaluates a custom ASIC---called a Tens…」
The receipt
Reviewed in H1 2027: if GPUs still hold more than 80% of frontier training runs and the ASIC share of hyperscaler inference keeps rising, the call stands.
Resolves
Jan 31, 2027
Outcome
Not due yet — no public outcome to report.
What we learned
Not resolved yet — here is the condition we pre-committed to that would overturn this call (check it yourself, you don't have to wait):
Any ASIC winning a major third-party frontier training contract, or the ASIC share of inference flat for two consecutive years.
