We bet the White House still keeps AI early-access criteria unpublished by June 30, 2027 — resolves 2027-06-30

New frontier AI models now go first to a list of partners for a few weeks, and that list has to clear the US government model by model, yet the criteria are not public.

Models that find software flaws are worth most to whoever gets them first, and companies off the list cannot see how to apply.

SecondSource bets the criteria and an application route stay unpublished, against a White House line that it approves no releases.

SecondSource’s reading: the early-access list is now nominated by each lab from its own customers, the U.S. government writes back naming who is cleared, and outsiders cannot see the criteria.

The basis is the withheld-documents index that the White House Office of the National Cyber Director (ONCD) filed in a public-records lawsuit on October 30: 27 ONCD emails to labs between June 25 and September 17, described as listing trusted partners cleared for early access to a model. The letters and the seven-page rulebook, the Voluntary AI Framework, are withheld in full, partly because customer identities count as trade secrets.

We bet that by June 30, 2027 neither the White House nor ONCD website has published the framework text, the trusted-partner criteria or an application route.

This bets only on publication, not on whether the government has ever struck anyone; a White House official told CNBC in July that it approves no company releases, and we have no evidence to rebut that.

Executive Office of the President / Office of the National Cyber Director (posted publicly by the plaintiff, Protect Democracy Project)
“After careful review, we have determined that all…”

This card rests on the withheld-documents index ONCD filed in the Protect Democracy lawsuit: ONCD production letter and index, October 30, 2026, and on the June 2 Executive Order 14409.

The index lists only dates, subject lines and one-line descriptions, not the letters; the count of 27 is ours, from row-by-row tallying.

Settled on June 30, 2027 by whether whitehouse.gov (presidential actions, fact sheets, releases) or the ONCD website has published the framework text, the trusted-partner criteria or an application route, with no grace period. Right if none is published; wrong if any is. Void if a court forces disclosure rather than the government publishing voluntarily.

What would overturn it

The White House or ONCD publishes the trusted-partner criteria or an application route, or the full framework.

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