Expert takes Sep 11, 2026

This week · published September 8

His read: the rise in how hard this model is to monitor is too large for "the model got smarter" to explain, and there is a stretch of "dark matter" in between.

Zvi Mowshowitz is a named AI commentator who runs the newsletter Don't Worry About the Vase and has held a strong position on AI risk for years. His words: "But the decline is too large compared to straight lines on graphs. There is 'dark matter.' Something else has changed." And: "OpenAI being right, and this being purely gains in capability, is the worst case scenario." (thezvi, 2026-09-08). Why that second sentence describes the worst case, in plain terms: if monitoring got harder purely as a natural consequence of the model getting stronger, this line of defense runs out for everyone and nobody escapes it. If some architectural choice caused it, then it is a choice that can be left unmade, and rules can block it. Which of our calls it supports or rebuts: it runs in the same direction as today's evidence update on that outside measurement, with both sides holding that the size of the move exceeds a capability jump. ⚠️ But we do not let his judgment carry weight: he holds a prior on this conclusion and has taken no measurement of his own. The weight still sits on the outside measurement that published its code and data. What he adds is that a named person holds this position in public, not that the position has been established.