← All verdict cards · Verify this card's timestamp ↗
On interconnect, copper (DSP and… — resolves 2027-06-30
On interconnect, copper (DSP and… — resolves 2027-06-30
The call
On interconnect, copper (DSP and retimers) wins near-term and optics (CPO) is deferred. Gelsinger's fast-pivot-to-optics narrative is kept on record as a standing contradiction.
Sources
MimiVsJames(訂閱制分析師,Wei-Chih 私有源)
「⽬前最⼤量出貨仍為50G per lane的AEC,但預期2026年下半年開始,市場將加速轉向100…」
More Than Moore (Ian Cutress)
「I joke that NVL72 is an engineering marvel and a m…」
The receipt
Reviewed in H1 2027: if Rubin-generation scale-up is still mainly copper and DSP, the call stands. Any hyperscaler deploying CPO at scale, beyond pilots, and it fails.
Resolves
Jun 30, 2027
Outcome
Not due yet — no public outcome to report.
What we learned
Not resolved yet — here is the condition we pre-committed to that would overturn this call (check it yourself, you don't have to wait):
A CPO system yield breakthrough, on the order of 99.5% per engine, together with volume deployment at any major buyer, would void the near-term copper call.
