Azeem Azhar, author of the tech newsletter Exponential View, argues that AI doesn't yet show up systematically in aggregate productivity statistics, and shouldn't be expected to yet.

Concept illustration on a mustard background: a large white board on an easel, topped by a sign lettered "PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS", is split into two panels, the left showing an old desktop computer and the right showing only a laptop shape drawn as a red dashed outline, which a black silhouetted figure at the lower right points to. At the lower left, a small booth lettered "COMPANY" holds a person seated at a laptop whose screen shows a speech-bubble icon, and large black quotation marks appear above the booth and at the top right. Printed on the image: 14 years PCs to show up in aggregate figures, per Azhar.

Azhar's case rests on the PC era, when computers took fourteen years to show up in aggregate productivity figures even though individual companies reported gains years earlier, and he offers no new data for AI. Azhar's November 7 issue cites Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson, who says US productivity grew 3.6% last quarter and believes productivity is turning a corner; the issue doesn't say which productivity measure the 3.6% is or what period it is compared with (Exponential View, 2026-11-07). How we checked →

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This item ran in the brief of Nov 8, 2026, alongside 10 other items. How we checked it, the quote checks and what was still missing that day are on that issue's How we checked page.

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SecondSource (2026). "Azeem Azhar, author of the tech newsletter Exponential View, argues that AI doesn't yet show up systematically in aggregate productivity statistics, and shouldn't be expected to yet.." https://secondsource.io/en/expert/2026-11-08-2/. Accessed access date.