Today · post October 13

Kundojjala puts ASML's fill rate at 87.3%; it's his own math

Independent semiconductor analyst Sravan Kundojjala says ASML's trailing four-quarter order fill rate fell from 126.8% in the second quarter of 2025 to 87.3% in the fourth, because bookings came in faster than they were recognized, not because demand weakened. Kundojjala wrote: "Its trailing four-quarter fill rate fell from 126.8% in 2Q25 to 87.3% in 4Q25, as bookings accelerated faster than recognised system sales." (Sravan Kundojjala, 2026-10-13) The fill rate is recognized system sales divided by bookings. Below 100% means new orders are piling up faster than shipments. Kundojjala notes that ASML stopped disclosing net bookings from the first quarter of 2026. Its backlog at the end of 2025 was €38.8B. He adds that the ratio fell below 50% during the pandemic and that current AI demand is heading that way. That is Kundojjala's extrapolation. The figures are the analyst's own calculation. We didn't check them against ASML's financial reports, and no quarterly breakdown was attached. Our reading: if the numbers hold, ASML's bookings overall are running ahead of shipments, and customers wait longer for tools. How much of that comes from AI-related customers, the post doesn't break out. Tool lead times may therefore become a limit on capacity expansion before demand does. How we checked →

Concept illustration: on the left, a large pale-grey machine with a dark panel holding a screen and buttons has an open door showing pipes and parts inside, and a person in black wearing a lanyard badge works inside it with a screwdriver. At upper right is blue lettering reading "ASML" beside a blue diagonal-striped mark, and on the right a person in a long white coat places a flat red-brown folder-like item onto a chest-high stack of similar red-brown flat items.

Source and checks

This item ran in the brief of Oct 14, 2026, alongside 14 other items. How we checked it, the quote checks and what was still missing that day are on that issue's How we checked page.

Cite this item

SecondSource (2026). "Kundojjala puts ASML's fill rate at 87.3%; it's his own math." https://secondsource.io/en/news/2026-10-14-5/. Accessed access date.